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NFL Week 11 odds, picks and greatest bets

Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears have been on an offensive tear.
Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears have been on an offensive tear. (Washington Submit illustration/Nam Y. Huh/AP)


So: Final week was not my greatest week. None of my picks — not the Dallas Cowboys, not the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams, nor Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa — cooperated. In reality, you might argue they conspired towards me. I received’t take it personally, however they need to know that we all know what occurred.

Let’s begin with Dallas, a greatest wager over the Inexperienced Bay Packers. The Cowboys jumped out early and had a 14-point lead on the finish of the third quarter, giving America’s Staff a 95 % win likelihood, per ESPN. Definitely they need to have lined a 4½-point unfold, proper? In any case, they have been 180-0 all-time when main by a minimum of 14 factors by means of three quarters — 195-0 if you happen to embody the playoffs. Expensive reader, it pains me to say: They may not. The Packers scored two touchdowns within the fourth quarter, compelled time beyond regulation after which walked off with a 31-28 win because of Mason Crosby’s 28-yard subject purpose.

In the meantime, Arizona and Los Angeles went into halftime with a rating of 17-3, giving us hope the below would money. Nope. Backup quarterbacks Colt McCoy and John Wolford led their offenses to a mixed 24 factors within the second half, busting the below. The rating was tied at 3 on the first half’s two-minute warning, at which level the below felt completely secure. Nonetheless, the whole moved down within the days earlier than the sport, indicating that our course of was sound. Lastly, my participant prop — Tagovailoa ending with below 268½ passing yards — would bust together with his 285-yard effort, regardless of the quarterback having simply 42 passing yards within the first quarter.

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The important thing numbers for NFL betting — and the way to use them to your benefit

The lone brilliant spot was the Minnesota Vikings beating the Buffalo Payments outright in time beyond regulation, cashing the Vikings +6½ ticket advocated earlier within the week earlier than the uncertainty round Payments quarterback Josh Allen was resolved. Allen did play however was not at his greatest, tossing two interceptions within the loss.

Picks have been made towards the consensus level spreads as of Tuesday morning; odds which have since modified have been up to date in daring sort, however picks are locked in on the earlier odds.

1. Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Choose: Chicago Bears +3 or +140 on the cash line

Chicago’s offense has improved over the previous three weeks, with every week higher than the final. Quarterback Justin Fields is main this cost, largely on the bottom, the place he has produced 128 speeding yards per recreation. He additionally has 4 speeding touchdowns in that three-game span.

I’d count on one other huge recreation towards Atlanta. The Falcons are permitting 6.3 yards per carry to quarterbacks — the league common is 4.7 — and quarterbacks are producing 12 extra factors per recreation than anticipated on the bottom after factoring within the down, distance and subject place of every rush towards Atlanta, per TruMedia. That offers the Falcons the NFL’s worst speeding protection towards quarterbacks.

2. Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-3½)

Choose: Detroit Lions +3½, playable to +3

The Giants have scored 21 extra factors than anticipated off turnovers, the fifth-highest whole within the league. The Lions have barely benefited in any respect from turnovers, scoring three fewer factors than anticipated. In any other case, regardless of their data, these have really been comparable groups. New York has been the Nineteenth-best workforce after adjusting for opponent, per Soccer Outsiders. Detroit is No. 22. Professional Soccer Focus ranks the Giants twenty ninth and the Lions twenty seventh after every play and judging them on their deserves, not simply the outcomes.

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My very own energy rankings have this recreation Giants -1, however I wouldn’t wager on Detroit getting fewer factors than the important thing variety of three. At lower than that, I’d again the Lions on the cash line.

3. Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Payments (-8½)

Underneath 43½, playable to 40. For the sport, the choose is Payments -8½, however it’s not a greatest wager.

This whole has moved considerably since I began penning this blurb early Tuesday — it began at 47 — so proceed with warning, though I do assume there may be some room to work with. There’s a probability for vital snow accumulation within the Buffalo space, with current forecasts elevating the opportunity of a number of toes of snow. Additionally aiding a low whole is the forecast of 20-mph winds, with the opportunity of 37-mph wind gusts. It’s going to be powerful to play effectively in these circumstances. There should not loads of video games to attract from, however since 2000, video games performed below comparable circumstances have gone over the whole simply two of 10 occasions, lacking the over by a median of 9 factors.

I’ve a couple of performs working for this game, together with below 47, below 44½ at +116 and below 30½ at +830. I additionally invested in longest subject purpose below 47½ yards at -115 and for the sport to have zero or one whole touchdowns at +4100. I’m additionally enjoying unders within the Akron at Buffalo school recreation Saturday.

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The performs above characterize our greatest bets of the week as a result of our evaluation reveals their worth is probably the most profitable in contrast with what we count on to occur on the sector. Under, you will see against-the-spread picks for all the video games on this week’s schedule. Nonetheless, attempting to select each recreation is one thing of a idiot’s errand. The home wins so usually partly as a result of bettors attempt to make too many performs when the chances aren’t of their favor. Hold that in thoughts when evaluating the remaining video games from the Week 11 slate.

4. Tennessee Titans at Inexperienced Bay Packers (-3)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. | Prime Video

Choose: Inexperienced Bay Packers -3

5. Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-12½)

Choose: Carolina Panthers +12½

6. New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3½)

7. Philadelphia Eagles (-6½) at Indianapolis Colts

Choose: Indianapolis Colts +6½

8. Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-4)

Choose: New Orleans Saints -4 or -6½ at +140 or higher

9. Washington Commanders (-3½) at Houston Texans

Choose: Washington Commanders -3½

10. Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2½)

Choose: Denver Broncos -2½

11. Dallas Cowboys (-1½) at Minnesota Vikings

Choose: Minnesota Vikings +1½

12. Cincinnati Bengals (-4½) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Choose: Cincinnati Bengals -4½ or -6½ at +120 or higher

13. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-6½) at Los Angeles Chargers

Choose: Kansas Metropolis Chiefs -6½

14. San Francisco 49ers (-8) at Arizona Cardinals

Choose: Arizona Cardinals +8



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